³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ

I do not have specific data in front of me with regard to the forecast for the number of people working in oil and gas in five or 10 years’ time. That is driven by a number of factors and, from a public policy perspective, as we would all recognise, by many levers that are not in the powers of this Parliament.

The fundamental point that I am making is that, as we all understand, the transition away from oil and gas will be a global phenomenon. It is an imperative—it is required. Without it, we will not meet our 2045 targets. The broader policy objective is that we have a just transition that enables people who are operating in that sector, with the high skills and expertise that they bring, to be deployed in the emerging opportunities of a green economy.

As I said, delivering a just transition to net zero presents significant economic opportunities, so, from a tax perspective, the ultimate objective would be that people in that sector and others would have the opportunity to move into those high-paid and good green jobs that we want to be created. That would help to provide a steady tax base to generate the revenues that we require.

Alex Doig, can you add anything on the data that we have available?

I take your points, but there is the question of impact. I mentioned fuel duty, but VAT is a key element of the cost at the pump, too. I take your point about the tensions around potential administrative complexity and deliverability, but those can be worked through by designing and implementing the devolution of tax in a way that is consistent with the Adam Smith principles. When it comes to what we would do if we had such levers at our disposal, control of VAT and national insurance contributions would be quite impactful in allowing us to shape policies more appropriately for Scotland.

You flag up one of the challenges around how we can move from idea to implementation. At this stage, we want to see what is happening at a UK level. We need to have a sense of what the larger tax landscape will be like before we can proceed. If we do not, we could work up a proposal only to find it superseded by something that is implemented from Westminster, and I do not think that that would be a good use of resources.

If the UK Government decides not to legislate on or make progress in this area, we can decide how to take things forward. Consideration of an online sales tax is referenced in the framework; it is one of our manifesto commitments; it is a shared principle between the Scottish Government and the Scottish Green Party; and it is something that we want to be fully explored. However, as I said, we have to wait and see what the UK Government is going to do.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. It goes back to the point about data: the challenge is having the data to evidence the impact. We know that there is support for the small business bonus scheme—for example, from the Federation of Small Businesses. Many of the small businesses that benefited from it value it. However, I take your point—

I take your point around the need for more robust data rather than what could be characterised as opinion or anecdotal evidence. That is why the report’s key recommendation around the need to enhance the amount of data that we have is an important one. It will allow us to be more effective in shaping policy, whether that is around specific reliefs or future consideration of more fundamental reforms. However, the key issue is data.

In my experience in engaging with businesses as a minister, and as a constituency representative for the past six years, the scheme is very much valued by those businesses. I apologise if I am misquoting, but I think that the FSB described it as a lifeline for many.

It is important that we consider carefully what the Fraser of Allander Institute has outlined in the report—that is why we are going to establish a short-life working group to consider it in more detail.

As I made reference to earlier, there is not necessarily a direct correlation between the rateable value of a business’s premises and its overall economic performance. That is a key point, and that is part of it.

However, I do not want to respond prematurely before having given this my full consideration. As I said at the outset, we are establishing a short-life working group and, as I said in response to a parliamentary question last week, I will of course be happy to update Parliament in due course, once we have had an opportunity to fully consider the report.

I will just reiterate what I have said previously: we very much value the report; it is an important contribution. I think that all the points that have been raised are pertinent.

Do you want to add anything, Alex?

The remit will be consistent with the agreement with the Scottish Green Party, as I outlined.

At this point, we are working at pace on that.

No—the can is not being kicked down the road. I am not yet in a position to announce timescales but, when I am, I will make sure that the Parliament is the first to know.